Valdar / Free tools / Set Completion Calculator

Set completion calculator: what finishing the set will actually cost

Percent complete is the flattering number. This one works out what the cards you are still missing will cost, splits the bill between commons, short prints and the few cards that are genuinely hard, and tells you how much of it is sitting in the tail.

cards
cards
$ each
What one costs you in a bulk lot, not what a dealer asks for a single.
cards
From the checklist. Leave at zero if the set has none.
$ each

The four cards below are the ones priced individually, because an average is useless on them. Rename them, change the prices, and tick the ones you already have.

87.9% complete

40 cards missing · $304 to finish · $7.59 per remaining card

Cost to finish$304every card you still need
Sitting in the tail92%short prints and key cards
Commons missing34$25.50 in total
Short prints missing3$36.00 in total
Key cards missing3$242 in total
Per remaining card$7.59averaged over what is left
What is leftCardsCostShare of the bill
Commons34$25.508%
Short prints3$36.0012%
Key cards3$24280%
Everything still missing40$304100%

3 of the 40 missing cards are key cards, priced individually and taken out of the pile before the rest is split. What is left is split between commons and short prints in proportion to the set, which is optimistic near the end: short prints are exactly what is left at 95%. Still to find: The rookie at $180, The error variation at $40.00, The high number at $22.00. More than nine tenths of what is left sits in short prints and key cards. Buying more bulk is activity rather than progress from here. Every price here is a value you entered. The site holds no price table for any set.

Why does the last 10% cost more than the first 60%?

Because the cards that survive to the end of a set build are the cards nobody is selling. A common is printed in the same quantity as every other common in the set, it circulates in bulk lots forever, and it costs pennies whenever you decide to buy it. The rookie, the short prints and the high-number series are each a separate search against a supply of a few copies a month, at a price the seller sets rather than the market.

The arithmetic in the panel above makes the size of that effect concrete. At 87.9% complete, with 40 cards missing out of 330, there is still $304 to pay — and 92% of it sits in 6 of those 40 cards. The 34 commons account for $25.50, which is 8% of what is left, against $242 sitting in 3 cards.

This is why percent complete is a misleading progress bar. It counts cards, and the cards are not interchangeable. A set builder at 87.9% has done most of the work measured in cards and roughly 63% of it measured in money. The honest progress bar is the one denominated in what is left to spend, and it is the one nobody puts on a checklist.

Cost still to pay against percentage of the set completed, for the worked example $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 0%20%40%60%80%100% three key cards alone, $242 0% done · $825 to go 87.9% done · $304 to go 99.1% done · $242 to go percentage of the set completed
The remaining bill flattens onto the key cards and stays there until the very last card is bought. Going from nothing to 87.9% of this 330-card set clears $521 of an $825 bill; the final 12.1 percentage points cost the remaining $304. At 99.1% complete, with 3 cards left, there is still $242 to find. Computed from the worked example loaded in the calculator above, assuming commons are bought first and the most expensive key card last. Free to reuse with a link to this page
The remaining bill at eight stages of the same set build, split between commons, short prints and key cards what is still to pay, and what it is made of $825 0% $532 50% $415 70% $357 80% $298 90% $264 95% $244 98% $180 100% commons short prints key cards
The commons drain out of the remaining bill early and the key cards do not move at all until the last three purchases. At the start, $223 of the $825 still to pay is commons; by 90% complete it is $20.25, while the key-card block is the same $242 it was on day one. That gold block is why percent complete flatters a set build: it is the part that does not respond to buying more cards. Computed from the same worked example the calculator opens with, assuming commons are bought first. Free to reuse with a link to this page

Buy the set backwards

Buy the key cards first and the commons last. That ordering feels wrong, because the commons are cheap and buying two hundred of them makes the percentage jump, and the percentage is the thing that feels like progress. It is also the ordering that leaves most sets unfinished, because it spends the enthusiasm on the easy part and saves the expensive search for the point at which the project has become a chore.

The argument for the reverse order is about availability rather than price. Commons are permanently in stock: bulk lots of them exist in every shop and on every marketplace, and a lot of three hundred cards from a set someone broke will fill most of a checklist in one transaction. The key cards are not like that. They appear when somebody decides to sell one, and if you are not ready to buy that week you wait for the next.

There is a second reason, which is that key cards are the only part of the bill exposed to the market. A common at a few pence is a few pence whatever happens to the player. The rookie is the card that reprices when he gets inducted, or traded, or has a season. Owning it early removes the risk that finishing the set becomes twice as expensive because of something that happened on a Sunday afternoon. Price it with the value calculator before you buy, not after you have committed to the set.

Cost still to pay at each stage of the worked example, computed from the engine
Complete Cards missing Cost to finish Per remaining card Share in the tail
0% 330 $825 $2.50 73%
50% 165 $532 $3.23 79%
70% 99 $415 $4.19 84%
80% 66 $357 $5.41 88%
90% 33 $298 $9.04 93%
94.8% 17 $264 $15.51 96%
98.2% 6 $244 $40.71 99%
99.7% 1 $180 $180 100%

Every figure computed from the same worked example the calculator opens with: a 330-card set with 30 short prints, commons at $0.75, short prints at $12.00, and four key cards priced individually. Change any of those and the shape stays, while the numbers move.

The same set bought two ways, and what is still outstanding at five points along the build
Cards owned Complete Still to pay, key cards last Still to pay, key cards first Difference
83 25.2% $673 $433 $240
165 50% $532 $293 $240
248 75.2% $380 $140 $240
297 90% $298 $58.50 $240
320 97% $259 $18.75 $240

The set costs the same either way by the time it is finished, so the last column is not a saving — it is the size of the commitment still hanging over the project. A builder who bought the key cards first is at 50% complete with $293 left, nearly all of it cards that exist in bulk lots. The one who did it the usual way is at the same percentage with $532 left and three specific cards to hunt for. That difference is what decides whether a set gets finished.

The number in the last column is the one to watch

Share in the tail is the fraction of your remaining bill sitting in short prints and key cards, and it only ever goes up. It starts at 73% before you have bought anything, because even then the expensive cards dominate the total, and it reaches 100% with one card to go. A set builder who tracks only percent complete never sees this number move.

It is useful because it converts a feeling into a decision. When the tail share passes about 90%, the commons have stopped mattering and the project is really a hunt for four or five specific cards. At that point buying more bulk is activity rather than progress, and the correct next action is to set alerts on the cards that are actually left and wait. The per-remaining-card column says the same thing in currency: it goes from $3.23 at half a set to $180 on the last card.

The tool reports the tail share honestly and it also reports the assumption behind it, which is worth repeating because it runs the other way. Missing cards are split between commons and short prints in proportion to the set as a whole, so at 95% complete the calculator assumes only a handful of the survivors are short prints. In reality nearly all of them are. The real tail share late in a build is higher than the number in that column, not lower.

The order to buy a set in

  1. Get the checklist first, with the short prints marked. Without it you cannot tell a card you are missing from a card that is hard to find, and every number on this page depends on that distinction.
  2. Price the four or five key cards individually and put them in the calculator. That total, not the set size, is what the project actually costs.
  3. Buy the key cards while you still want to. They are the ones that reprice, the ones that appear rarely, and the ones whose absence ends set builds.
  4. Then buy commons in bulk, in as few transactions as possible. Postage per lot is the real cost of a common, not the card. A lot of two hundred moves the percentage further than a month of singles.
  5. Work the short prints last, with alerts rather than searches. They surface irregularly; the way to buy them is to be told when one appears, not to go looking on a Tuesday.
  6. Recount before you claim a set is complete. Variations, corrected errors and checklist cards are where a finished set turns out to be one card short, and they are worth settling before you price the whole thing.

What a master set does to all of this

A master set is the base checklist plus everything else the product contains: the inserts, the parallels, the variations and, in some definitions, every serial-numbered colour of every card. It is not a bigger version of the same project. It is a different project, because the parallels have their own print runs and some of them exist in single figures, so the cost to finish stops being an arithmetic problem and becomes an availability problem.

Put a master checklist into the set size field and the tail share goes close to 100% almost immediately. That is the correct answer rather than a broken one: in a master set nearly every remaining card is scarce by design, and the commons you can buy in a bulk lot are a rounding error against a parallel numbered to twenty-five. Work out how many objects you are actually chasing with the serial number calculator before committing to one.

The honest advice for a master set is to define it before you start and write the definition down. Manufacturers do not publish an official master checklist for most products, so the boundary — does it include the one-of-ones, does it include the printing plates, does it include the retail-only parallel — is a decision you make, and a project with a moving boundary cannot be finished. Set the boundary, then use this calculator on it.

Six things this calculator does not know, and what to do about each
What it cannot know Why it matters What closes the gap
Which specific cards you are missing Without a checklist the only available assumption is that the missing pile is drawn from the whole set Enter the true counts of short prints and commons you still need, and the split stops being an estimate
The order you will find them in Availability rather than price is what ends most set builds, and nothing here models a search Set alerts on the named cards instead of searching for them, and buy when they appear
Postage per lot A common costs its price plus a share of a delivery, and buying singles multiplies the second part Count a delivery per transaction, and buy commons in as few lots as you can
Condition A checklist position filled by a creased card is a position you will fill again later Decide the standard before you start, and price upgrades as separate purchases
Variations, errors and checklist cards Whether a corrected card is a second card is a definition rather than a fact Write the definition down before you buy, because a project with a moving boundary cannot be finished
What the finished set is worth A complete set carries a premium on scarce vintage and a discount on heavily produced years Price the key cards separately and compare with what complete sets have actually sold for

The highlighted row is the one that moves the answer most, and it is the cheapest to fix: a checklist with the short prints marked turns the proportional split into a count. Everything else on the list is a decision about the project rather than an input the arithmetic is waiting for.

Bottom line

Percent complete counts cards, and cards are not interchangeable, so it flatters a set build badly. On the worked example on this page a 330-card set that is 87.9% complete still has $304 to pay, and 92% of that sits in 6 cards while the 34 missing commons come to $25.50. The remaining bill flattens onto the key cards early and stays there, which is why a set is bought backwards: key cards first, because they are the ones that appear rarely and reprice, and commons last, because a bulk lot of them will exist next month at the same price. Track the share of the remaining cost sitting in the tail rather than the percentage of cards owned, and the point at which buying more bulk stops being progress becomes obvious.

Questions this tool gets asked

Why does the last 10% of a set cost more than the first 60%?

Because the cards left at the end are the ones nobody sells. Commons are printed in the same quantity as everything else and they circulate constantly, so the first three hundred cards of a set arrive in bulk lots at pennies each. What remains is the rookie, the short prints and the high numbers, and each of those is a separate search at a price somebody else sets. On the worked example on this page, being 87.9% complete still leaves $304 to pay, and 92% of that sits in 6 cards.

How should I buy a set — commons first or key cards first?

Key cards first, commons last, which is the opposite of how most people do it. Commons are permanently available: there will be a bulk lot of them next month and the month after, at the same price. The key cards are the constraint, they are the cards whose price moves, and they are the reason a half-finished set gets abandoned. Buying them while you are enthusiastic rather than when you are grinding out the last twelve cards is the single change that finishes more sets.

What is a short print?

A card printed in smaller numbers than the rest of its own set, usually because of how the printing sheet was laid out rather than because the manufacturer announced it. Short prints are rarely marked on the card, so the checklist you are working from has to tell you which they are. They matter here because they are priced as a different class of card entirely and they are what makes the back half of a set expensive.

Does this calculator know what my set costs?

No, and it deliberately does not pretend to. Every price in it is a field you fill in: the average price of a common, the average price of a short print, and a line per key card. A built-in price table for thousands of sets would be stale within a quarter and wrong in a way you could not see. What the tool contributes is the arithmetic — the split between commons and short prints, the cost to finish, and the share of that bill sitting in the tail.

What is a master set?

A master set is every card associated with a product rather than just the numbered base checklist: the base cards plus every insert, every parallel, every variation and sometimes every serial-numbered colour. It is a different project by an order of magnitude, because each parallel has its own print run and the scarcest of them may exist in single figures. Set the set size to the full master checklist if you want an honest number, and expect the tail share to approach 100%.

How does the tool split my missing cards between commons and short prints?

Proportionally: it assumes the cards you are missing are drawn from the whole set, so if a tenth of the set is short-printed, a tenth of your missing pile is too. That is the right assumption early on and an optimistic one late, because short prints are exactly what a collector still lacks at 95%. If you know which specific cards are left, enter the true counts rather than the set totals and the answer sharpens immediately.

Is a complete set worth more than the sum of its cards?

Sometimes, and much less often than set builders hope. A complete set of a scarce vintage issue does carry a premium, because assembling one is genuinely hard and buyers will pay to skip the search. A complete set from a period of heavy production carries a discount instead, since the buyer is acquiring three hundred cards they do not want in order to get the four they do. Price the key cards separately before assuming the whole is worth more than the parts.

Does anything I enter here get saved?

No. The card counts, the prices and the key-card list are read from the fields, put through a few lines of arithmetic in the page, and written back into the readout. Nothing is sent anywhere, nothing is stored in the browser, and reloading the page resets it to the worked example. The same function that computes the panel computed the chart and the milestone table when the site was built.

The card is in your hand. Point the camera at it.

These calculators work on numbers you already have. Valdar gets you the numbers: it identifies the card from one photo, pulls what that exact card has actually sold for, and estimates the four grading sub-dimensions before you pay a submission fee. Free to try on iPhone and Android.